Assignments

Unit 7 Overview 
Probability in Statistics
Have you ever heard a saying something like, "You have a better chance of getting hit by lightning or being in an airplane crash than you do in winning the lottery?" If you have and you understood what it means, then you know the basics of probability. 
What is meant by the word probability? A probability is a numeric value representing the chance, likelihood, or possibility a particular event will occur; for instance, the probability of mortgage rates coming down, a rainy day, winning the lottery, or someone at a party having the same birthday as you. In all of these instances, the probability is a proportion or fraction whose value ranges between 0 and 1, inclusive. 
An event that cannot happen, for example rolling a seven on a six-sided die, will have a probability of 0. An event that is certain to happen, for example flipping either a head or a tail when flipping a coin will have a probability of 1. The probability of flipping a head when flipping a coin is .50 or ½.

What will you learn in this unit?
Unit Outcomes 
1.	1. Understand the concept of statistical significance and the essential role that probability plays in defining it.
2.	2. Know how to find probabilities using theoretical and relative frequency methods and understand how to construct basic probability distributions.
3.	3. Understand the law of large numbers, use this law to understand and calculate expected values, and recognize how misunderstanding of the law of large numbers leads to the gambler’s fallacy.
4.	4. Compute and interpret various measures of risk as they apply to travel, disease, and life expectancy.
Course outcomes practiced in this unit: MM207-2: Apply probability to real-world problems.

What do you have to do in this unit?
1.	Complete Reading Chapter 6: Probability in Statistics 
in the course text, Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life
2.	Review Key Terms 
3.	Attend Seminar 
5 Points 
Log in from Student’s Home page 
4.	Participate in Discussion 
25 Points 
5.	Complete the Unit MSL Homework 
35 Points 
6.	Complete the Unit Quiz 
35 Points 
7.	Check out Extra! Extra! 
For additional resources

Reading
Read Chapter 6 Probability in Statistics in the course text, Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life 
Be sure to complete the reading before attending the Seminar. It is a good idea to keep a notebook handy and record any new definitions or concepts you encounter while reading. To be successful in this class you must learn some new vocabulary and to think critically about data and statistical studies.
At the end of each section in this chapter there are review exercises. You might consider working through these exercises to be sure you have mastered the concepts from that section. At the end of the chapter there is a Chapter Quiz that you can take for practice before taking the unit quiz. There also are Chapter Review Exercises that cover the entire chapter.
Visit Learning Resources on the left hand side of the page where you will find StatCrunch video tutorials, StatCrunch Study Cards and the ebook.	

Key Terms
And Probability (Joint Probability): is the probability that an event A and event B will both occur.
Complement of an Event: is the set of all outcomes in which a particular event does not occur. The probability of an event and its complement must sum to 1.00.
Conditional Probability: is the probability of one event given the occurrence of another event, written P(B given A) or P(B|A).
Dependent Events: are two events for which the outcome of one affects the probability of the other.
Either/Or Probability: is the probability that either event A or event B will occur.
Event: is any collection of one or more outcomes that share a property of interest.
Expected Value: is the mean value of the outcomes for some random variable.
Gambler's Fallacy: is the mistaken belief that a streak of bad luck makes a person "due" for a streak of good luck.
Independent Events: are two events for which the outcome of one does not affect the probability of the other.
Law of Large Numbers: if a process is repeated through many trials, the larger the number of trials, the closer the proportion should be to P(A). This is also called the law of averages.
Non-Overlapping Events (Mutually Exclusive): are two events for which the occurrence of one precludes the occurrence of the other.
Outcome: is the most basic possible results of an observation or experiment.
Probability Distribution: is the complete distribution of the probabilities of all possible events associated with a particular variable.
Relative Frequency Method of Probability: is a method of estimating a probability based on observations or experiments by using the observed or measured relative frequency of the event of interest.
Statistical Significance: is a measure of the likelihood that a result is meaningful or is not likely to have occurred by chance.
Theoretical Method of Probability: is a method of estimating a probability-based on a theory, or set of assumptions, about the process in question. Assuming that all outcomes are equally likely, the theoretical probability of a particular event is found by dividing the number of ways the event can occur by the total number of possible outcomes.

Seminar
To earn seminar credit for this unit, complete one of the following options below:
Option 1: Participate in a synchronous seminar using the KHE Seminar.
To enter Seminar: 
•	To access a seminar from the KU Campus homepage, select My Studies and then My Seminars. 
•	You may also select My Seminars from the My Classes area under Current Classes. In the My Classes area, you will see the date and time of your next scheduled seminar. Thirty minutes before the seminar is scheduled to begin, this will become an active link that allows you to directly access the seminar. Note: You will not be able to enter the seminar until 30 minutes before the start time.
•	After a brief pause, you will be in the Seminar. Your name should appear on the left side of the screen. 
•	To participate in the chat, enter your text in the white box at the bottom of the page and hit Send. 
Note: You are strongly encouraged to attend Seminar, however if this is not possible, you should (a) listen to the archived recording and (b) complete the Seminar #2 Option. 
The topics for the Unit 7 seminar include:
•	And Probability (Joint Probabilities)
•	Either/Or Probabilities
•	Relative Frequency Method of Probability
•	Theoretical Method of Probability
•	Statistical Significance
•	Using StatCrunch
Please complete the Unit 7 reading before attending the seminar session, if possible, so that you are familiar with the necessary terminology and concepts. 

Assignments
There are two assignments in this unit. There is a MyStatLab homework assignment and a MyStatLab quiz. You will have as many attempts on the homework as you require but you will only have 5 attempts at the quiz. While working the homework problems we will be able to use learning aids for each problem but those aids will not be available when you are taking the quiz. After completing the quiz you will be able to use the learning aids as you review your work.
ID: MM207-07-10-AS

Assignment

Visit MSL Homework on the left hand side of the page to complete the MyStatsLab homework.

Quiz

Visit MSL Quiz on the left hand side of the page to complete the MyStatsLab Quiz. 

StatCrunch

StatCrunch is an online statistical software package that allows you to perform complex analyses, share data sets, and generate compelling reports of your data. Developed by programmers and statisticians led by Webster West of Texas A&M University, StatCrunch already has more than ten thousand data sets available for you to analyze, covering almost any topic of interest. Interactive graphics are embedded to help you understand statistical concepts and are available for export to enrich reports with visual representations of data. As part of MyStatLab the StatCrunch tool enables you to analyze and interpret data sets from the textbook.
Access Learning Resources where you will find your study plan, ebook, Tools For Success (StatCrunch video tutorials, StatCrunch Study Cards, and a link to the software), and the Multimedia Library by clicking on "Learning Resources" on the Course Home page.